ELECTRICA
RESEARCH ARTICLE

An Insight into the Impact of Solar and Wind Powers’ Probability Distributions on Distribution-Network Investments

1.

Department of Electrical-Electronics Engineering, Bartın University, Bartın, Turkey

ELECTRICA 2020; 20: 52-61
DOI: 10.5152/electrica.2020.19074
Read: 1013 Downloads: 562 Published: 10 February 2020

With the introduction of renewable generators, the investment challenges have also increased recently because of the associated stochastic behaviors. Their impacts in terms of the investment related to the distribution network could be different depending on the probability distribution of the corresponding renewable generators, historical-data modeling, and network structure. Therefore, the impacts of the probability distributions of wind power plants (WPPs) and solar power plants (SPPs) are analyzed thoroughly for different case studies by using a convolution-based distribution-network planning (DNP) model. The following four cases are considered: the 1) integration of only WPPs considering Scenario-1of load, wind, and solar powers, 2) integration of only WPPs considering four scenarios, 3) integration of only SPPs considering Scenario-1, and 4) integration of only SPPs considering four scenarios. While obtaining the probability distributions considering the four scenarios of wind, solar, and load power, day/night and seasonal effects are considered by dividing the historical data into four scenarios. The results show that considering the four scenarios is more suitable for a risk-averse approach planning, as the chance constraints are formulated separately for all the scenarios. However, the probability distribution of a different generation technology exerts a significant impact on the investment results of DNP.

Cite this article as: Ugranlı F. An Insight into the Impact of Solar and Wind Powers’ Probability Distributions on Distribution-Network Investments. Electrica, 2020; 20(1): 52-61.

Files
EISSN 2619-9831